Severe Weather Threat Thursday March 30th

There will be 2 rounds of storms on Thursday. Lets talk about #1 first.  This line of activity should enter our area around or shortly after 5 a.m.  Right now it looks like the storms will be in a weakening phase once they push east of I-55.  Until the line of storms completely falls apart there will be damaging wind and hail threat, especially west of the Natchez Trace.

Severe Threat Through Wednesday Night

HRRR Model at 1 a.m. Thursday

RPM Model at 1 a.m. Thursday

RPM Model at 5 a.m. Thursday

A lull in activity is likely from mid to late morning into the early afternoon. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere here in northeast Mississippi and west Alabama.  This is also where things get tricky.  Some models like the RPM suggest a storm complex down along the coast will limit storm development here:

RPM Model at 4:30 p.m. Thursday

However, some models suggest storms to the south won't have much impact here in north Mississippi:

NAM Model at 7 p.m. Thursday

GFS Model at 7 p.m. Thursday

Right now the safe bet is to assume storms WILL occur somewhere in northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama. The atmosphere will be conducive to super cells that could produce large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts.  Because of that the Storm Prediction Center has placed a good chunk of north Mississippi in a moderate risk for severe weather.  

Severe Threat Thursday

Severe storms probably won't affect all areas on Thursday but we must all stay prepared.  It only takes 1 storm to cause serious problems.  Be sure you have multiple ways of getting warning information and be sure your severe weather action plan is ready.

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More Severe Weather Thursday March 30th

Tired of the stormy weather yet?  If so, then I have bad news.  Yet ANOTHER storm system is slated to affect northeast Mississippi and west Alabama Wednesday night into Thursday.  All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes, hail, damaging wind, and locally heavy rainfall.

Severe Threat Wednesday & Wednesday Night

Severe Threat Thursday

I think there is going to be a line of storms pushing east of I-55 late Wednesday night. It should be in a weakening phase by the time it gets here.  After a lull in activity late Thursday morning, a round of more robust storms is likely during the afternoon heating.  This is when we could have the most issues in the WCBI-TV coverage area.  It's spring so it goes without saying we need to stay weather aware!

Saturday March 25th Storm Threat

Ongoing showers and storms Saturday morning should remain below severe limits. However, gusts over 40 mph are possible. This line of storms will push into west AL by noon.




Additional strong storms are possible later today.  If severe weather occurs the main concerns look to be large hail and damaging wind gusts.  The tornado threat remains lows.

Saturday's Storm System Getting Organized

Strong to severe storms remain possible on Saturday here in northeast Mississippi and west Alabama.  The system responsible for it will get going later today out in the High Plains:



By Saturday the storms will be a concern for us here:



The main concerns look to be damaging wind gusts, some hail, and locally heavy rain.  The tornado threat is never zero in these situations but it's down the list a bit as far as things go. A line of storms will approach Saturday morning but may be weakening as it pushes east of I-55.  Additional development may occur during the heating of the day.  We'll see.  Either way I'm going to continue the 70% chance of rain across the WCBI-TV coverage area.

We'll get a break on Sunday for the most part but additional strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening:



Suffice to say this is looking more and more like a spring-like weather pattern going forward.  That means we'll have several more opportunities for strong to severe storms down the line.  The next 60 days encompasses our prime severe weather season.

Record Highs Tuesday?

Plenty of heat will be had on Tuesday, the 2nd day of spring.  Highs in the low to mid 80s are going to be widespread across all of Mississippi and Alabama.

Will we have any new record highs?  It's possible.  The old record in Tupelo for March 21st is 84 set back in 1966.  The old record high in Columbus is 87 set just in 2012.  These records are certainly in jeopardy.  Cooler air will return Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front. 

On the storm front... I'm watching out for the possibility of strong to severe storms Friday night and Saturday.  This is one computer model (GFS) at 7 a.m. Saturday suggesting a line of storms moving into northeast Mississippi. 

Rain & Storms Tuesday March 7th

Another batch of rain and storms will push through the region.  As of 10 AM the storms are moving into Tupelo and most of north central Mississippi.  

Storms will continue to rumble to the southeast during the day.  The severe weather threat is on the lower end of the spectrum.  

This activity should be out of the WCBI coverage area by 3 or 4 PM

Strong Storms Wednesday, March 1st

It still looks like the prime window of oppotunity for storms in the WCBI-TV coverage area will be between 10 a.m. and 3 or 4 p.m.  Damaging wind and/or hail are the prime threats but a spin up tornado can't be totally ruled out.  The HRRR model below has a decent handling of the expected timing:

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center: