More Storms Late Tonight & Wednesday

The action continues on the storm front. Thankfully this next system is likely going to affect areas JUST east of the WCBI-TV coverage area.  A moisture surge will get going tonight as a warm front begins to lift northward from the coast.  Scattered hail producing storms may develop out ahead of the front.  The NAM 3 km model shows this batch of storms getting up to the I-20/59 corridor by 5 a.m.:

NAM 3 km at 5 a.m. 

The Storm Prediction Center has this zone highlighted for hail potential tonight.  It meshes well with the NAM 3 km model: 

Hail Probabilities Through Tonight

I can't rule out a strong storm getting into Noxubee or Pickens Counties but most of it should stay along the I-20/59 corridor.  Later during the morning hours on Wednesday the storms will shift more to our east into central Alabama:

NAM 3 km at 7 a.m.

By the afternoon the original storms will have shifted east of the region but additional storms are expected to fire up in Alabama.  These may be those discrete storms that rotate and have enhanced tornado potential:

Nam 3 km at 4 p.m.

Severe Threat Area Wednesday

Our area will be close to the action but right now the evidence suggests we'll miss out on much if not all of the activity.  That's good news here but bad news for folks in Alabama and points east.  Keep a weather eye if you have travel plans to the east during the day Wednesday.

Stormy Tonight & Monday Morning

It's hard to believe that the crisp and cool upper 40s and lower 50s we've had early Sunday morning will transition to stormy conditions within less than a day.

6 a.m. Sunday Observations

Now, as for the storms, it looks like we'll have 2 episodes to watch. The first one looks to enter western MS during the evening.  Odds favor a general weakening trend as it pushes east of I-55 late this evening but it will bear watching:

NAM 3k at 10 p.m. Sunday

A more intense line of storms should push across the State of Mississippi between 1 a.m. and 10 a.m. Monday.  This line will have a higher potential for hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.  The big question is how far north will the most unstable air get?  Can it get north of I-20 and into the WCBI-TV coverage area?  That's the big question at this point.  Suffice to say we'll be on radar baby sit patrol tonight to see how it all evolves.

NAM 3k at 7 a.m. Monday

NAM 3k Significant Tornado Parameter at 7 a.m. Monday

A decent soaking is a fair bet for the region regardless of severe weather or not.  Several inches of rain are likely across most of Louisiana and southern Mississippi.  Northeast Mississippi and west Alabama may not get as much rain but it'll still help out with the drought conditions we're currently in. 

Rainfall Potential Through 7 a.m. Tuesday

The take away from all this is that you should be weather aware during the late evening through mid morning Monday.  Severe weather is possible but not guaranteed.  It's best to make sure you have a way to get warning information during the night.  

Severe Weather Threat Thursday March 30th

There will be 2 rounds of storms on Thursday. Lets talk about #1 first.  This line of activity should enter our area around or shortly after 5 a.m.  Right now it looks like the storms will be in a weakening phase once they push east of I-55.  Until the line of storms completely falls apart there will be damaging wind and hail threat, especially west of the Natchez Trace.

Severe Threat Through Wednesday Night

HRRR Model at 1 a.m. Thursday

RPM Model at 1 a.m. Thursday

RPM Model at 5 a.m. Thursday

A lull in activity is likely from mid to late morning into the early afternoon. This will help to destabilize the atmosphere here in northeast Mississippi and west Alabama.  This is also where things get tricky.  Some models like the RPM suggest a storm complex down along the coast will limit storm development here:

RPM Model at 4:30 p.m. Thursday

However, some models suggest storms to the south won't have much impact here in north Mississippi:

NAM Model at 7 p.m. Thursday

GFS Model at 7 p.m. Thursday

Right now the safe bet is to assume storms WILL occur somewhere in northeast Mississippi and northwest Alabama. The atmosphere will be conducive to super cells that could produce large hail, tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts.  Because of that the Storm Prediction Center has placed a good chunk of north Mississippi in a moderate risk for severe weather.  

Severe Threat Thursday

Severe storms probably won't affect all areas on Thursday but we must all stay prepared.  It only takes 1 storm to cause serious problems.  Be sure you have multiple ways of getting warning information and be sure your severe weather action plan is ready.

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More Severe Weather Thursday March 30th

Tired of the stormy weather yet?  If so, then I have bad news.  Yet ANOTHER storm system is slated to affect northeast Mississippi and west Alabama Wednesday night into Thursday.  All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes, hail, damaging wind, and locally heavy rainfall.

Severe Threat Wednesday & Wednesday Night

Severe Threat Thursday

I think there is going to be a line of storms pushing east of I-55 late Wednesday night. It should be in a weakening phase by the time it gets here.  After a lull in activity late Thursday morning, a round of more robust storms is likely during the afternoon heating.  This is when we could have the most issues in the WCBI-TV coverage area.  It's spring so it goes without saying we need to stay weather aware!

Saturday March 25th Storm Threat

Ongoing showers and storms Saturday morning should remain below severe limits. However, gusts over 40 mph are possible. This line of storms will push into west AL by noon.




Additional strong storms are possible later today.  If severe weather occurs the main concerns look to be large hail and damaging wind gusts.  The tornado threat remains lows.

Saturday's Storm System Getting Organized

Strong to severe storms remain possible on Saturday here in northeast Mississippi and west Alabama.  The system responsible for it will get going later today out in the High Plains:



By Saturday the storms will be a concern for us here:



The main concerns look to be damaging wind gusts, some hail, and locally heavy rain.  The tornado threat is never zero in these situations but it's down the list a bit as far as things go. A line of storms will approach Saturday morning but may be weakening as it pushes east of I-55.  Additional development may occur during the heating of the day.  We'll see.  Either way I'm going to continue the 70% chance of rain across the WCBI-TV coverage area.

We'll get a break on Sunday for the most part but additional strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening:



Suffice to say this is looking more and more like a spring-like weather pattern going forward.  That means we'll have several more opportunities for strong to severe storms down the line.  The next 60 days encompasses our prime severe weather season.

Record Highs Tuesday?

Plenty of heat will be had on Tuesday, the 2nd day of spring.  Highs in the low to mid 80s are going to be widespread across all of Mississippi and Alabama.

Will we have any new record highs?  It's possible.  The old record in Tupelo for March 21st is 84 set back in 1966.  The old record high in Columbus is 87 set just in 2012.  These records are certainly in jeopardy.  Cooler air will return Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front. 

On the storm front... I'm watching out for the possibility of strong to severe storms Friday night and Saturday.  This is one computer model (GFS) at 7 a.m. Saturday suggesting a line of storms moving into northeast Mississippi.