More Storms Late Tonight & Wednesday

The action continues on the storm front. Thankfully this next system is likely going to affect areas JUST east of the WCBI-TV coverage area.  A moisture surge will get going tonight as a warm front begins to lift northward from the coast.  Scattered hail producing storms may develop out ahead of the front.  The NAM 3 km model shows this batch of storms getting up to the I-20/59 corridor by 5 a.m.:

NAM 3 km at 5 a.m. 

The Storm Prediction Center has this zone highlighted for hail potential tonight.  It meshes well with the NAM 3 km model: 

Hail Probabilities Through Tonight

I can't rule out a strong storm getting into Noxubee or Pickens Counties but most of it should stay along the I-20/59 corridor.  Later during the morning hours on Wednesday the storms will shift more to our east into central Alabama:

NAM 3 km at 7 a.m.

By the afternoon the original storms will have shifted east of the region but additional storms are expected to fire up in Alabama.  These may be those discrete storms that rotate and have enhanced tornado potential:

Nam 3 km at 4 p.m.

Severe Threat Area Wednesday

Our area will be close to the action but right now the evidence suggests we'll miss out on much if not all of the activity.  That's good news here but bad news for folks in Alabama and points east.  Keep a weather eye if you have travel plans to the east during the day Wednesday.

Stormy Tonight & Monday Morning

It's hard to believe that the crisp and cool upper 40s and lower 50s we've had early Sunday morning will transition to stormy conditions within less than a day.

6 a.m. Sunday Observations

Now, as for the storms, it looks like we'll have 2 episodes to watch. The first one looks to enter western MS during the evening.  Odds favor a general weakening trend as it pushes east of I-55 late this evening but it will bear watching:

NAM 3k at 10 p.m. Sunday

A more intense line of storms should push across the State of Mississippi between 1 a.m. and 10 a.m. Monday.  This line will have a higher potential for hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.  The big question is how far north will the most unstable air get?  Can it get north of I-20 and into the WCBI-TV coverage area?  That's the big question at this point.  Suffice to say we'll be on radar baby sit patrol tonight to see how it all evolves.

NAM 3k at 7 a.m. Monday

NAM 3k Significant Tornado Parameter at 7 a.m. Monday

A decent soaking is a fair bet for the region regardless of severe weather or not.  Several inches of rain are likely across most of Louisiana and southern Mississippi.  Northeast Mississippi and west Alabama may not get as much rain but it'll still help out with the drought conditions we're currently in. 

Rainfall Potential Through 7 a.m. Tuesday

The take away from all this is that you should be weather aware during the late evening through mid morning Monday.  Severe weather is possible but not guaranteed.  It's best to make sure you have a way to get warning information during the night.